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VIEWPOINTS OF A COMMODITY TRADER

Expect The Unexpected

Why The Small System Trader Fails

Friday, January 8th, 2010

Wisdom is meaningless until your own experience has given it meaning and there is wisdom in the selection of wisdom – BERGEN EVANS Author and Professor
Those of you that follow this blog know that I am a big fan of a definitive trading plan. Having a plan however, does not equate to success, there are [...]

Dance Of The Money Bees

Friday, November 27th, 2009

Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded – YOGI BERRA
 
It continues to amaze me to watch the Wall Street Gurus apply scientific and fundamental logic to an illogical game. Not only does this cause traders, who buy into these scenarios, to underestimate risks, it also draws a crowd into the scenario, increasing risk further. [...]

Skills, Time And Choice

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet - DAMON RUNYON
 
According to Wikipedia, “A game of chance is a game whose outcome is strongly influenced by some randomizing device, and upon which contestants may or may not wager money or anything of monetary value. [...]

The Indians Are Gathering Wood

Monday, November 2nd, 2009

History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it – WINSTON CHURCHILL
 
Have you ever noticed that all the Wall Street firms are within pennies of each other when forecasting earnings? Have you ever noticed that they are all wrong (and occasionally right) at the same time? I doubt seriously if this is [...]

Great Expectations

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

The best things in life are unexpected – because there were no expectations – ELI KHAMAROV 
 
Legendary trader Roy Longstreet was once asked by Intermarket Magazine, “Why have you succeeded in trading to such a degree and why do most traders fail?”  Roy answered “Many major problems people have in trading are caused by their expectations [...]

The Red Badge Of Courage

Monday, October 19th, 2009

 If you lose hope, somehow you lose the vitality that keeps life moving, you lose that courage to be, that quality that helps you go on in spite of it all. And so today I still have a dream – MARTIN LUTHER KING JR.
 
Roy Longstreet, legendary commodity speculator once said, “To trade successfully, one needs [...]

The Rhythm Of Living

Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

Action and reaction, ebb and flow, trial and error, change- this is the rhythm of living. Out of our over-confidence, fear; out of our fear, clearer vision, and fresh hope. And out of hope, progress – BRUCE BARTON (AMERICAN CONGRESSMAN 1886-1967)
 
If we want to become better traders, we need to rely more on ourselves, and [...]

Dead Sure Or Just Plain Dead

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure you could survive the odds beating you – LARRY KERSTEN, AMERICAN SOCIOLOGIST
 
It’s amazing to me how confident we humans can be about certain things. For example, if you ask someone if they are a good driver, they will most definitely say yes. In fact, a poll [...]

10,000 Hours To Graceland

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

The world’s a stage and most of us are desperately unrehearsed – SEAN O’CASEY, IRISH DRAMATIST
 
Do we really have a clear understanding of raw talent? Is there such a thing as a natural born trader? 
I think there is innate talent, but I also think it plays much less of a role in success than we [...]

I Like My Information Sliced Thin

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Painting can’t be taught, only found – PICASSO
 
I was watching the New England Patriot/Buffalo Bills game last night, and it dawned on me just how good professional football players are at adapting to unforeseen changes to their game plan. When necessary, professionals (in any game) will act out of instinct without hesitation. They know it’s [...]