VIEWPOINTS OF A COMMODITY TRADER

Expect The Unexpected

I Like My Information Sliced Thin

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Painting can’t be taught, only found – PICASSO   I was watching the New England Patriot/Buffalo Bills game last night, and it dawned on me just how good professional football players are at adapting to unforeseen changes to their game plan. When necessary, professionals (in any game) will act out of instinct without hesitation. They [...]

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You Say Goodbye And I Say Hello

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

What we see depends mainly on what we look for – JOHN LUBBOCK   In his book The Art of Happiness, the Dalai Lama notes a Greek fable on perspective.  Once there was a disciple of a Greek Philosopher who was commanded by his master for three years to give money to everyone who insulted [...]

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Two Brains Are Better Than One

Monday, August 31st, 2009

I dream of painting, and then I paint my dream – Vincent Van Gogh Even though my father would say on occasion that I didn’t have a brain in my head, I found out later that I actually have two. The left hemisphere which controls the right side of the body, helps us with the [...]

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Par Putts Are Ok But Bogey Putts Are Not?

Tuesday, August 18th, 2009

In light of the exciting PGA Championship, I thought I would make a point with a golf analogy. No matter how professional you are in your field it seems like a loss “feels worse” than a gain “feels good”. Even Tiger Woods is affected by this pull of irrational behavior when faced with bogey vs. [...]

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Why Are We Such Suckers For Prediction?

Monday, August 10th, 2009

It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future. – YOGI BERRA I keep CNBC on all day while I work. Perhaps I think I will miss something, or maybe it’s the background noise that’s appealing. In any event, what I always find amazing is the parade of experts making one prediction after another. [...]

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I’m A Loser And Proud Of It

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

My 10 year old nephew Kevin paid me a visit this week. I thought he would enjoy meeting the guys I work with, so I brought him into the office one day. After looking at the screens and watching the prices go up and down, he asked, “How do you make money from all this?” [...]

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Are You Trading For Thrills Or Dollar Bills?

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

If you don’t know who you are, the stock market is an expensive place to find out.  – ADAM SMITH, The Money Game According to Ori and Rom Brafman in their book “Sway” the National Institutes of Health (NIH) conducted a rather interesting experiment. They gathered participants and placed them in a MRI like machine [...]

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INSIGHTS: Facts And Fantasies About Commodity Futures

Friday, July 31st, 2009

In a 2004 groundbreaking study from The Yale School of Management’s Center for International Finance titled “Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures”, Drs. Gary Gorton and Ken Rouwenhorst show that not only are commodity futures negatively correlated to stocks and bonds, but also that commodity returns are greater than bonds and have about the same [...]

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Would You Pay Over $200 For A $20 Bill? Don’t Be Too Sure

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

I just read a very interesting book. It is called “Sway”: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior.  Max Brazerman is a professor at The Harvard Business School and introduces his new students to a game at the beginning of the semester. He auctions off a $20 bill with only two rules to the game. 1- [...]

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