VIEWPOINTS OF A COMMODITY TRADER

Expect The Unexpected

Outliers, Timing And The Illusion Of Returns (part 2)

Tuesday, June 1st, 2010

A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem – ALBERT EINSTEIN 
 
 
In Part one we talked about how outlier events in the markets play such an important role in our final performance, yet how few are really aware of this fact. These events come out of nowhere, yet the experts [...]

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Outliers, Timing, And The Illusion Of Returns

Thursday, May 27th, 2010

 
A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem – ALBERT EINSTEIN 
 
Malcolm Gladwell in his book Outliers says an “outlier is a scientific term to describe things or phenomena that lie outside the normal experience”. In Florida for example, you can expect most days during the summer to be somewhere [...]

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Would A Trading Coach Help You?

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

George Bernard Shaw once said “Success does not consist in never making mistakes but in never making the same one a second time.” Of course this is easier said than done. In any event this is a critical problem in trading. We do make the same mistakes over and over and sometime working with other [...]

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The Devil Is In The Details: An Important Limitation In Back Testing

Wednesday, April 14th, 2010

It seems to me that back testing trading strategies before trading them is becoming increasingly more popular these days. The evolution of the “sophisticated” trading platform now offers investors access to “back testing strategies” as well as fast and cost effective execution. The “do-it-yourself” fad is on the rise, and who can cast blame when [...]

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What’s Really Going On In The Markets This Year

Tuesday, March 9th, 2010

Most of the articles and media reporting are centered around the stock market, because most investors and traders look to the stock market for returns. A few newspapers and magazines occasionally talk about commodities, but are mostly reporting on Gold, Copper and Oil.
I thought I would put out the performance of 40 different markets (compliments [...]

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Bumbling Ben Bernanke

Friday, February 12th, 2010

This is an interesting short video from YouTube which covers some of Ben Bernanke’s forecast from 2005-2007, just before the crisis took us hostage.
Now, I would assume that Ben Bernanke has a research staff, and access to information, that would dwarf our capabilities, not to mention he can call anyone he wants on the phone [...]

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The Last Man Standing – Survivor Or Skill

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

 
Those that have knowledge don’t predict. Those that predict don’t have knowledge – LAO TZU 
 
What criteria did you use to choose your latest investment? A better question would be, are you sure that you even understand the criteria? 
For example, let’s say that you chose a mutual fund based on your advisors presentation of how well [...]

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A Few Hands Make The Big Money

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

 
Here is an interesting video of Trader Salem Abraham and Howard Lederer, legendary poker player. They discuss the similarities in managing a good poker hand and a good trade, and how folding bad hands in both cases is the key to success. 
Howard Lederer is known as “the Poker Professor” because of his demeanor, analytical style [...]

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Dance With The Girl That Brought You To The Party

Tuesday, January 19th, 2010

Anyone can get old, all you have to do is live long enough – GROUCHO MARX
 
This is a rather humorous yet profound Groucho Marx quote that I recently read. It reminded me of trading, where the quote might be “Anyone can make money, all you have to do is stay in the game long enough.” [...]

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Why The Small System Trader Fails

Friday, January 8th, 2010

Wisdom is meaningless until your own experience has given it meaning and there is wisdom in the selection of wisdom – BERGEN EVANS Author and Professor
Those of you that follow this blog know that I am a big fan of a definitive trading plan. Having a plan however, does not equate to success, there are [...]

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