VIEWPOINTS OF A COMMODITY TRADER

Expect The Unexpected

Trading Your Edge

Tuesday, October 5th, 2010

Here’s the thing. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you’re the sucker   – MATT DAMON from the movie Rounders   I think most of us will agree in order to be successful trading we need some kind of an edge. A good friend or relative who [...]

Share

From Hypothetical To Reality – Back Testing And Simulation

Tuesday, September 14th, 2010

  By Charles Maley and Nick Pingitore     I don’t know how to sit outside myself and test against a hypothetical self who stayed home – THOM GUNN    I have had the great pleasure of working with Nick Pingitore for the last 10 years. After being a client of mine for over five [...]

Share

Outliers, Timing And The Illusion Of Returns (part 2)

Tuesday, June 1st, 2010

A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem – ALBERT EINSTEIN      In Part one we talked about how outlier events in the markets play such an important role in our final performance, yet how few are really aware of this fact. These events come out of nowhere, [...]

Share

Outliers, Timing, And The Illusion Of Returns

Thursday, May 27th, 2010

  A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem – ALBERT EINSTEIN    Malcolm Gladwell in his book Outliers says an “outlier is a scientific term to describe things or phenomena that lie outside the normal experience”. In Florida for example, you can expect most days during the summer [...]

Share

Would A Trading Coach Help You?

Wednesday, May 5th, 2010

George Bernard Shaw once said “Success does not consist in never making mistakes but in never making the same one a second time.” Of course this is easier said than done. In any event this is a critical problem in trading. We do make the same mistakes over and over and sometime working with other [...]

Share

The Devil Is In The Details: An Important Limitation In Back Testing

Wednesday, April 14th, 2010

It seems to me that back testing trading strategies before trading them is becoming increasingly more popular these days. The evolution of the “sophisticated” trading platform now offers investors access to “back testing strategies” as well as fast and cost effective execution. The “do-it-yourself” fad is on the rise, and who can cast blame when [...]

Share

What’s Really Going On In The Markets This Year

Tuesday, March 9th, 2010

Most of the articles and media reporting are centered around the stock market, because most investors and traders look to the stock market for returns. A few newspapers and magazines occasionally talk about commodities, but are mostly reporting on Gold, Copper and Oil. I thought I would put out the performance of 40 different markets [...]

Share

Bumbling Ben Bernanke

Friday, February 12th, 2010

This is an interesting short video from YouTube which covers some of Ben Bernanke’s forecast from 2005-2007, just before the crisis took us hostage. Now, I would assume that Ben Bernanke has a research staff, and access to information, that would dwarf our capabilities, not to mention he can call anyone he wants on the [...]

Share

The Last Man Standing – Survivor Or Skill

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

  Those that have knowledge don’t predict. Those that predict don’t have knowledge – LAO TZU    What criteria did you use to choose your latest investment? A better question would be, are you sure that you even understand the criteria?  For example, let’s say that you chose a mutual fund based on your advisors [...]

Share

A Few Hands Make The Big Money

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

  Here is an interesting video of Trader Salem Abraham and Howard Lederer, legendary poker player. They discuss the similarities in managing a good poker hand and a good trade, and how folding bad hands in both cases is the key to success.  Howard Lederer is known as “the Poker Professor” because of his demeanor, [...]

Share
Rss Feed Tweeter button