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VIEWPOINTS OF A COMMODITY TRADER

Expect The Unexpected

Come Out Of Your Shell (Part 1)

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

We don’t see things as they are, we see things as we are – ANAIS NIN US (French-born) author 
 
I was having a conversation with one of my clients yesterday on the subject of whether good traders are born or whether they can be taught. I brought to his attention that this was the identical argument [...]

10,000 Hours To Graceland

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

The world’s a stage and most of us are desperately unrehearsed – SEAN O’CASEY, IRISH DRAMATIST
 
Do we really have a clear understanding of raw talent? Is there such a thing as a natural born trader? 
I think there is innate talent, but I also think it plays much less of a role in success than we [...]

INSIGHTS: Money For Nothing

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

Someone stole all my credit cards, but I won’t be reporting it. The thief spends less than my wife — HENNY YOUNGMAN
 
Milton Friedman was a great American economist and statistician among other admirable things. He is best known among scholars for his theoretical and empirical research.
Friedman’s philosophy was basically opposed to government regulation of many [...]

Keep Your Options Open

Monday, September 21st, 2009

While everyone has a right to his or her opinion, the people who are informed have more of a right – BILL DIXON, JAZZ MUSICIAN
 
My experience is that most people who trade options do not do very well. A major reason is that most option traders don’t know how options are priced. Without having a [...]

Simple? Yes – Easy? No

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

Some will never learn anything because they understand everything too soon – THOMAS BLOUNT 
 
I was having a conversation with my partner Martin yesterday, and he was telling me how a mutual friend of ours, a commodity trading advisor, was losing some accounts lately. I was quite surprised by this since the program was in a [...]

I Like My Information Sliced Thin

Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

Painting can’t be taught, only found – PICASSO
 
I was watching the New England Patriot/Buffalo Bills game last night, and it dawned on me just how good professional football players are at adapting to unforeseen changes to their game plan. When necessary, professionals (in any game) will act out of instinct without hesitation. They know it’s [...]

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: What Does 11 Trillion+ Dollars Look Like?

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

 
According to US Treasury Direct the US debt has reached $11,046,247,657,049.48. 
CNBC says, “If denominated in $1 bills, the cash would stack as high as the tallest building in the world, the 2683.7 foot Burj Dubai skyscraper… 1,474,918 times. At this height, it would create a block of bills with a base approximately twice the size of [...]

Can You Lose All Your Money On A Sure Thing?

Monday, September 14th, 2009

Doubt is uncomfortable, certainty is ridiculous – VOLTAIRE 
 
What if we knew for sure that the Philadelphia Eagles would beat the Carolina Panthers yesterday, and that we were also certain that they would beat the betting spread? Any wager we made would pay off. Betting on a “sure thing” would be equal to a profitable outcome. [...]

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words

Thursday, September 10th, 2009

To go too far is as bad as to fall short – CONFUCIUS
 
Sometimes when the media talking heads throw numbers at us, we lose perspective of what these numbers actually mean. We are practically numb now, a billion here, a hundred billion there. 
Well, I found a great picture that does put it into perspective. It [...]

You Say Goodbye And I Say Hello

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

What we see depends mainly on what we look for – JOHN LUBBOCK
 
In his book The Art of Happiness, the Dalai Lama notes a Greek fable on perspective. 
Once there was a disciple of a Greek Philosopher who was commanded by his master for three years to give money to everyone who insulted him. When this [...]