Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded – YOGI BERRA
It continues to amaze me to watch the Wall Street Gurus apply scientific and fundamental logic to an illogical game. Not only does this cause traders, who buy into these scenarios, to underestimate risks, it also draws a crowd into the scenario, increasing risk further. [...]
One of my clients asked me a good question on Friday. How in the world can this bond market continue higher? It appears to me that there is still an appetite for U.S. Government paper in the short run, mostly because there is still an active camp of deflation supporters. It is a very strange [...]
Successful system trading, in spite of the financial rewards, can be frustrating. A quantified mechanical model will take many decisions off the table. Yet, various issues, particularly the psychological approach to the issues, will always be in play.
I am a big fan of reliable quantified models, but I also realize that the approach has to [...]
I thought I would wrap up my observations on the current gold market, by sharing a final look at gold in terms of some other asset classes.
How many ounces of gold does it take to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average? How many ounces of gold does it take to buy the median priced [...]
According to Jeff Clarke of Casey’s Gold and Resource Report, central banks are net buyers of gold for first time in 22 years. “Precious-metals research firm GFMS reports central banks around the world bought more gold in the second quarter than they sold for the first time since 1987. And consider this: The amount of [...]
Although Gold might be a bit stretched in the short term, it is not hard to see where it could go a lot higher in the long run. I found some interesting charts on Agora Financial website that fall into the “a picture is worth a thousand words” category.
First, let’s look at the expansion in [...]
The race is not always to the swift nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet - DAMON RUNYON
According to Wikipedia, “A game of chance is a game whose outcome is strongly influenced by some randomizing device, and upon which contestants may or may not wager money or anything of monetary value. [...]
Also interviewed in Jack Schwager’s “Market Wizards” was Dr. Van K. Tharp. Although Van is not a trader, he his very well known for his research on how stress affects human performance in the financial markets. He has developed a series of tests that help traders confront their strengths and weaknesses, with the intention to [...]
I had the pleasure of working with Jack Schwager from 1980 to 1983. At the time Jack was the Director of Commodity research at Paine Webber Jackson Curtis, Inc., and the author of the famous book “Market Wizards,” Interviews with top traders.
In the Wizards Jack interviewed successful traders like Michael Marcus, Paul Tudor Jones and [...]
History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it – WINSTON CHURCHILL
Have you ever noticed that all the Wall Street firms are within pennies of each other when forecasting earnings? Have you ever noticed that they are all wrong (and occasionally right) at the same time? I doubt seriously if this is [...]
