VIEWPOINTS OF A COMMODITY TRADER

Expect The Unexpected

Blowing Bubbles

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

 
Common sense is the knack of seeing things as they are, and doing things as they ought to be done – C.E. Stowe 
 
The American media is officially obsessed with sensational terminology when describing the financial markets these days. Nothing trends, it either explodes higher or melts down. We have “flash crashes”, a “new normal” and [...]

  • Share/Bookmark

Water Water Everywhere And Not A Drop To Drink – Or Grow Crops (Part 2)

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

 
If you can tell me something else where the fundamentals are so attractive…I’d be happy to put my money there, but I don’t know of any other place – JIM ROGERS ON AGRICULTURE
 
In my last post I talked a bit about the most recent developments in the agriculture market and how I thought it could [...]

  • Share/Bookmark

Water, Water Everywhere But Not A Drop To Drink- Or Grow Crops

Tuesday, August 10th, 2010

 
If you can tell me something else where the fundamentals are so attractive…I’d be happy to put my money there, but I don’t know of any other place – JIM ROGERS ON AGRICULTURE
 
Back in mid December, I had posted a two part series on the agriculture sector. I tried to point out several developments that [...]

  • Share/Bookmark

INSIGHTS: Trader Vic Prepares For Hyperinflation

Thursday, July 29th, 2010

 
Victor Sperandeo is a very well respected trader in the Wall St. and Chicago circles. According to Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, ““Trader Vic,” is a trader, index developer and financial commentator based in Dallas, Texas. He has over 40 years’ experience trading both independently and for the likes of George Soros and Leon Cooperman.
Mr. Sperandeo [...]

  • Share/Bookmark

INSIGHTS: John Hussman

Wednesday, July 14th, 2010

 
“Why are the debates in academia so bitter? – Answer:  because the stakes are so low.”
 
John Hussman of the Hussman Funds has a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford. He used to be a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan.  Now, he’s a highly successful money manager. John tells a story [...]

  • Share/Bookmark

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: The Cloud With A Silver Lining

Tuesday, July 6th, 2010

With all the conflicting forces in the markets today it is difficult to see where real long term value might be hiding. No one is hard pressed for opinions about what to buy or sell, but a large percentage of those opinions are based on short term momentum ideas and not long term value.
So where [...]

  • Share/Bookmark

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: It’s Only Natural

Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

 
 
I think it’s time to talk about Natural Gas again. A few months ago I wrote on the possibility that Natural gas was nearing a bottom in spite of the record supplies. On April 1st I wrote:
“Everyone hates natural gas right now and rightfully so. It has been in an extended down move for a [...]

  • Share/Bookmark

Outliers, Timing And The Illusion Of Returns (part 2)

Tuesday, June 1st, 2010

A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem – ALBERT EINSTEIN 
 
 
In Part one we talked about how outlier events in the markets play such an important role in our final performance, yet how few are really aware of this fact. These events come out of nowhere, yet the experts [...]

  • Share/Bookmark

Outliers, Timing, And The Illusion Of Returns

Thursday, May 27th, 2010

 
A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem – ALBERT EINSTEIN 
 
Malcolm Gladwell in his book Outliers says an “outlier is a scientific term to describe things or phenomena that lie outside the normal experience”. In Florida for example, you can expect most days during the summer to be somewhere [...]

  • Share/Bookmark

The Poison Of Assumption

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

The assumption that seeing is believing makes us susceptible to visual deceptions – KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON
 
 
It is only human nature to make assumptions. In fact we don’t really give it much thought. We just assume our boss is impressed when we come in early or stay late. We assume our wife forgives us when we [...]

  • Share/Bookmark
Rss Feed Tweeter button