VIEWPOINTS OF A COMMODITY TRADER

Expect The Unexpected

Water, Water Everywhere But Not A Drop To Drink- Or Grow Crops (Part 1)

Tuesday, August 10th, 2010

If you can tell me something else where the fundamentals are so attractive…I’d be happy to put my money there, but I don’t know of any other place – JIM ROGERS ON AGRICULTURE Back in mid December, I had posted a two part series on the agriculture sector. I tried to point out several developments [...]

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INSIGHTS: Trader Vic Prepares For Hyperinflation

Thursday, July 29th, 2010

  Victor Sperandeo is a very well respected trader in the Wall St. and Chicago circles. According to Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, ““Trader Vic,” is a trader, index developer and financial commentator based in Dallas, Texas. He has over 40 years’ experience trading both independently and for the likes of George Soros and Leon Cooperman. [...]

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INSIGHTS: John Hussman

Wednesday, July 14th, 2010

  “Why are the debates in academia so bitter? – Answer:  because the stakes are so low.”   John Hussman of the Hussman Funds has a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford. He used to be a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan.  Now, he’s a highly successful money manager. John [...]

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FOOD FOR THOUGHT: The Cloud With A Silver Lining

Tuesday, July 6th, 2010

With all the conflicting forces in the markets today it is difficult to see where real long term value might be hiding. No one is hard pressed for opinions about what to buy or sell, but a large percentage of those opinions are based on short term momentum ideas and not long term value. So [...]

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FOOD FOR THOUGHT: It’s Only Natural

Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

    I think it’s time to talk about Natural Gas again. A few months ago I wrote on the possibility that Natural gas was nearing a bottom in spite of the record supplies. On April 1st I wrote: “Everyone hates natural gas right now and rightfully so. It has been in an extended down [...]

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Outliers, Timing And The Illusion Of Returns (part 2)

Tuesday, June 1st, 2010

A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem – ALBERT EINSTEIN      In Part one we talked about how outlier events in the markets play such an important role in our final performance, yet how few are really aware of this fact. These events come out of nowhere, [...]

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Outliers, Timing, And The Illusion Of Returns

Thursday, May 27th, 2010

  A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem – ALBERT EINSTEIN    Malcolm Gladwell in his book Outliers says an “outlier is a scientific term to describe things or phenomena that lie outside the normal experience”. In Florida for example, you can expect most days during the summer [...]

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The Poison Of Assumption

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

The assumption that seeing is believing makes us susceptible to visual deceptions – KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON     It is only human nature to make assumptions. In fact we don’t really give it much thought. We just assume our boss is impressed when we come in early or stay late. We assume our wife forgives [...]

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Who’s On First?

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

I know that you believe you understand what you think I said, but I’m not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant – Robert McCloskey If you really think about it, the Euro is as much of an experiment as it is a currency. As I mentioned in my previous [...]

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FOOD FOR THOUGHT: What’s Up With The PIGS?

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

Once again, the media has many reasons (in hindsight) for the demise in Greece, Portugal and Spain, and of course are now forecasting how the situation will be resolved. Personally, I think this could be the beginning of the end for the Euro. Greece is the first test, but other European countries have problems, and [...]

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