Doubt is uncomfortable, certainty is ridiculous – VOLTAIRE
What if we knew for sure that the Philadelphia Eagles would beat the Carolina Panthers yesterday, and that we were also certain that they would beat the betting spread? Any wager we made would pay off. Betting on a “sure thing” would be equal to a profitable outcome. [...]
It is the mark of an educated mind to entertain a thought without accepting it – ARISTOTLE
When using a mechanical trading approach we must learn how to entertain a good set of probabilities without accepting them as fact.
What is potentially more dangerous than the information which makes up the numbers is how we feel [...]
Like any other effort in science, the back test can vary from shallow and useless to very useful. It is a matter of the quality of information that forms the test. A shallow back test, and the discipline to stick with it, is a recipe for disaster.
The quality of information determines the significance in the [...]
